CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-17T21:05:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-17T21:05ZCME Note: CME associated with M7.2 flare of AR3685. There is a very brief possible flux rope signature starting around 2024-05-20T06Z with separation of magnetic field components, drop in density and temperature and mild increase of magnetic field to 8nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-20T06:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-20T12:54Z (-5.63h, +7.45h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/05/17 21:22Z Plane of Sky 1: 02:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 07:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction POS Difference: 5:20 POS Midpoint: 04:40Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:18 Numeric View/Impact Type: 0 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.7 Travel Time: ~8.7 * 7:18 = 63:32 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-20T12:54Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/18 17:58ZLead Time: 36.27 hour(s)
Difference: -6.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-18T18:00Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement