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Prediction for CME (2024-05-17T21:05:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2024-05-17T21:05ZCME Note: CME associated with M7.2 flare of AR3685. There is a very brief possible flux rope signature starting around 2024-05-20T06Z with separation of magnetic field components, drop in density and temperature and mild increase of magnetic field to 8nT. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-20T06:16Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-20T12:54Z (-5.63h, +7.45h) Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1 Prediction Method Note: Time of Launch: 2024/05/17 21:22Z Plane of Sky 1: 02:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 07:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction POS Difference: 5:20 POS Midpoint: 04:40Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:18 Numeric View/Impact Type: 0 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.7 Travel Time: ~8.7 * 7:18 = 63:32 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-20T12:54Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/18 17:58ZLead Time: 36.27 hour(s) Difference: -6.63 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-18T18:00Z |
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